OLUR — first-half goals scanner

Top goal candidates todayTop 14 of 14 analysed · ranked by model FH O1.5 probability

Tier League

#	Fixture (kick-off)	Model O1.5	vs league	Betfair O1.5	Edge (best market)	Verdict
1	TP-47 v JS Hercules Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-07-23 15:30 UTC	74%	1.46× vs 51%	1.67 60%	+5.1% (O0.5)	ELITE_FH_O15 +5.1% (O0.5)	↓ pick
2	Carolina Core v Inter Miami II USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-22 22:30 UTC	51%	1.15× vs 44%	2.06 49%	+2.4% (O1.5)	WATCHLIST_FH_O15 +2.4% (O1.5)
3	Chapecoense v Flamengo Brazil — Brazil Serie A · 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC	50%	1.60× vs 31%	2.82 35%	—	NO_BET
4	New England II v New York City II USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-23 15:00 UTC	49%	1.10× vs 44%	1.92 52%	—	WATCHLIST_FH_O15
5	Lexington v Oakland Roots USA — USA USL Championship · 2026-07-22 23:00 UTC	44%	1.27× vs 35%	2.36 42%	+1.2% (O1.5)	STRONG_FH_O15 +1.2% (O1.5)	↓ pick
6	Ceará v CRB Brazil — Brazil Serie B · 2026-07-22 22:30 UTC	37%	1.35× vs 28%	3.55 28%	+8.8% (O0.5)	WATCHLIST_FH_O15 +8.8% (O0.5)
7	Coritiba v Palmeiras Brazil — Brazil Serie A · 2026-07-22 22:30 UTC	36%	1.16× vs 31%	3.60 28%	+8.1% (O0.5)	WATCHLIST_FH_O15 +8.1% (O0.5)
8	Operário PR v Ponte Preta Brazil — Brazil Serie B · 2026-07-22 22:30 UTC	28%	1.01× vs 28%	2.88 35%	+13.9% (U0.5)	NO_BET +13.9% (U0.5)
9	Internacional v Cruzeiro Brazil — Brazil Serie A · 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC	28%	0.89× vs 31%	3.10 32%	+6.7% (U0.5)	NO_BET +6.7% (U0.5)
10	Whitecaps II v Austin II USA — USA MLS Next Pro · 2026-07-23 01:00 UTC	27%	0.60× vs 44%	2.30 43%	—	NO_BET
11	Náutico v Londrina Brazil — Brazil Serie B · 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC	26%	0.93× vs 28%	3.10 32%	—	NO_BET
12	Termez Surkhon v Dinamo Samarqand Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League · 2026-07-23 15:00 UTC	25%	0.84× vs 30%	3.05 33%	+3.0% (U0.5)	NO_BET +3.0% (U0.5)
13	Goiás v Sport Recife Brazil — Brazil Serie B · 2026-07-22 23:30 UTC	25%	0.90× vs 28%	3.45 29%	+5.5% (U0.5)	NO_BET +5.5% (U0.5)
14	São Paulo v Atlético PR Brazil — Brazil Serie A · 2026-07-23 00:30 UTC	25%	0.80× vs 31%	3.45 29%	+7.7% (U0.5)	NO_BET +7.7% (U0.5)

Recommended picksSubset of the ranking that cleared a verdict tier — full reasoning

Lexington v Oakland Roots

USA — USA USL Championship · 2026-07-22 23:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.56 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +9.6% (gross +13.0%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £32 to back @ 2.56 · lay 2.92 (£50)

Model FH O1.544.1%

Market FH O1.539.1%

League avg FH O1.534.8%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 44.1% (league base rate 34.8%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.81× league avg (scored 0.50/game, n=22)
Away team FH defence away: 1.36× league avg (conceded 1.00/game, n=46)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.50 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.22)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.94 (home 1.49, away 1.45)
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [2, 0, 2, 2, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [2, 0, 2, 2, 3]

Risks

Small sample: home n=22, away n=46
Thin H2H history (n=2) — H2H signal less reliable
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

TP-47 v JS Hercules

Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-07-23 15:30 UTC

ELITE_FH_O15 █████████░ 9/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.14 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.1% (gross +5.8%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £143 to back @ 1.14 · lay 1.22 (£20)

Note: model saw +20.1% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +5.1% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 1.66	market implied 60.2%	edge +20.1%
Betfair: £0 matched · £66 to back @ 1.66 · lay 1.93 (£20)

Model FH O0.592.8%

Market FH O0.587.7%

League avg FH O0.579.7%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 73.8% (league base rate 50.6%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.35× league avg (scored 1.42/game, n=33)
Away team FH defence away: 1.33× league avg (conceded 1.39/game, n=33)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.63 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.70)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.61 (home 1.32, away 1.29)
H2H last 6 matches: 83% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [3, 1, 2, 5, 2]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [0, 5, 1, 2, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +20.1% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Recently resolvedLast 14 days

League	Fixture	Pick	Outcome	P&L (£10 stake)
Estonia — Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tammeka Tartu II v JK Tallinna Kalev U21	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.14	HIT (HT 1-3)	£+1.33
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	Sporting KC II v Minnesota United II	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.99	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	Tauras v FA Šiauliai II	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.00	HIT (HT 2-0)	£+9.50
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	Grindavík v ÍR	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.04	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	Okzhetpes v Zhetysu	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.92	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	KFG v Kári	BACK FH UNDER 1.5 @ 2.46	MISS (HT 0-2)	£-10.00
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	Pakhtakor v Lokomotiv	BACK FH UNDER 0.5 @ 3.85	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	Chicago Fire II v New York RB II	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.84	HIT (HT 2-0)	£+7.98
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	Kári v Fjardabyggd / Leiknir	BACK FH UNDER 1.5 @ 2.10	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+10.45
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	SJK-juniorit Youth v TP-47	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 1.65	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	Hammarby v Kalmar	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.20	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	Kauno Žalgiris v Panevėžys	BACK FH UNDER 0.5 @ 3.95	MISS (HT 2-0)	£-10.00
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	Lahti v HJK	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.46	MISS (HT 1-0)	£-10.00

Performance

Scope	n	Hit %	Net ROI (5% comm)
Overall	56	51.8%	+1.10%
ELITE_FH_O15	4	75.0%	+18.70%
STRONG_FH_O15	50	50.0%	-7.76%
FH_O05_ONLY	2	50.0%	+187.50%
Paraguay — Paraguay Division Intermedia	1	100.0%	+157.70%
Sweden — Sweden Superettan	1	100.0%	+121.60%
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	1	100.0%	+95.00%
Finland — Finland Ykkönen	4	50.0%	+89.41%
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	3	66.7%	+71.17%
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	3	100.0%	+53.20%
Norway — Norway 2. Division	2	100.0%	+51.78%
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 1	3	66.7%	+45.83%
Brazil — Brazil Serie C	2	50.0%	+32.65%
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	3	66.7%	+29.05%
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	100.0%	+23.75%
Latvia — Latvia Virsliga	3	66.7%	+19.87%
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 2	1	100.0%	+18.05%
Estonia — Estonia Esiliiga B	1	100.0%	+13.30%
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	2	50.0%	-1.55%
USA — USA USL Championship	3	66.7%	-13.70%
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	3	33.3%	-31.83%
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	3	33.3%	-40.07%
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	3	33.3%	-55.27%
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	5	20.0%	-65.18%
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	3	0.0%	-100.00%
Norway — Norway First Division	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Iceland — Iceland Úrvalsdeild	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	1	0.0%	-100.00%

Top candidates outside your leaguesTop 10 by Betfair-implied O1.5 · market price only, no model

#	Fixture	Implied O1.5	Back	Lay (£ size)	Matched £
1	Volsungur (W) v Tindastoll (W) Icelandic Ladies 1. deild · 2026-07-23 19:15 UTC	63%	1.58	2.16 (£17)	£0
2	Rigas Futbola Skola v IF Vestri UEFA Europa Conference Qualifiers · 2026-07-23 16:30 UTC	60%	1.68	1.92 (£50)	£0
3	New England Revolution II v New York City FC II US MLS Next Pro League · 2026-07-23 15:00 UTC	52%	1.92	3.15 (£33)	£0
4	Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire US MLS · 2026-07-22 23:30 UTC	50%	1.99	2.06 (£193)	£0
5	San Jose Earthquakes v Orlando City US MLS · 2026-07-23 02:30 UTC	50%	1.99	2.06 (£73)	£0

If a league keeps appearing here, consider swapping it into your FootyStats selection so we can model it properly.

League usefulness reportWhich of your 50 leagues are actually working — lifetime stats

League	Total picks	Resolved	Hit %	Net ROI	Last pick
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	6	5	20%	-65.2%	2026-07-23
Finland — Finland Ykkönen	4	4	50%	+89.4%	2026-07-04
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	3	3	67%	+71.2%	2026-07-11
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	3	3	100%	+53.2%	2026-06-21
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 1	3	3	67%	+45.8%	2026-06-27
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	3	3	67%	+29.1%	2026-07-12
Latvia — Latvia Virsliga	3	3	67%	+19.9%	2026-07-05
USA — USA USL Championship	4	3	67%	-13.7%	2026-07-22
Iceland — Iceland 2. Deild	3	3	33%	-31.8%	2026-07-17
USA — USA MLS Next Pro	3	3	33%	-40.1%	2026-07-20
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	3	3	33%	-55.3%	2026-07-11
Kazakhstan — Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Premier League	3	3	0%	-100.0%	2026-07-18
Norway — Norway 2. Division	2	2	100%	+51.8%	2026-06-14
Brazil — Brazil Serie C	2	2	50%	+32.7%	2026-07-04
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild	2	2	50%	-1.6%	2026-07-18
Paraguay — Paraguay Division Intermedia	1	1	100%	+157.7%	2026-07-07
Sweden — Sweden Superettan	1	1	100%	+121.6%	2026-06-21
Lithuania — Lithuania 1 Lyga	1	1	100%	+95.0%	2026-07-19
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	1	100%	+23.8%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway 2 Division Group 2	1	1	100%	+18.0%	2026-06-27
Estonia — Estonia Esiliiga B	1	1	100%	+13.3%	2026-07-20
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway First Division	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-06-14
Iceland — Iceland Úrvalsdeild	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-06-16
Uzbekistan — Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Super League	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-07-17
Sweden — Sweden Division 2	4	0	—	—	2026-06-24
China — China China League Two	1	0	—	—	2026-06-28

Leagues with 0 picks (or sustained negative ROI) are candidates to swap out of your FootyStats selection. Top external leagues from the panel above are candidates to swap in.