OLUR — First-half goals scanner

Live forward-test · Page generated 2026-06-05 20:15 UTC · Scan generated 2026-06-05 20:15 UTC
Auto-refreshes every 15 min · last data at 2026-06-05 20:15 UTC
38 fixtures in today's scan 0 cleared verdict 11 historical picks logged 7 resolved 4 open

Top goal candidates todayTop 20 of 38 analysed · ranked by model FH O1.5 probability

# Fixture Model O1.5 vs league Betfair O1.5 Edge (best market) Verdict
1 Järfälla v Stocksund
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-08 17:30 UTC
56% 1.38× vs 40% NO_BET
2 Jazz v VJS
Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC
55% 1.14× vs 48% 2.06 49% NO_BET
3 Qviding FIF v Astorps FF
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Vastra Gotaland · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
53% 1.03× vs 52% 1.04 96% NO_BET
4 TPV v Inter Turku II
Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
53% 1.11× vs 48% 1.89 53% NO_BET
5 Honka v EBK
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
53% 1.07× vs 49% 1.60 62% +2.6% NO_BET
6 MYPA v PPJ
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
52% 1.06× vs 49% 1.96 51% +0.2% NO_BET
7 TP-47 v JBK
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
52% 1.05× vs 49% 2.02 50% +2.4% NO_BET
8 Öster v Värnamo
Sweden — Sweden Superettan · 2026-06-09 17:00 UTC
52% 1.55× vs 34% NO_BET
9 JJK v PKKU
Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 15:30 UTC
51% 1.05× vs 48% 2.06 49% +2.1% NO_BET
10 GBK v Vaajakoski
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
51% 1.02× vs 49% 1.01 99% NO_BET
11 OLS v SalPa
Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
49% 1.00× vs 48% 2.18 46% NO_BET
12 Nyköping v Fittja IF
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Sodra Svealand · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC
48% 1.11× vs 43% 1.01 99% NO_BET
13 Sunnersta v Gute
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-06-06 12:30 UTC
46% 1.15× vs 41% 1.04 96% WATCHLIST_FH_O15
14 Union Plaani v HPS
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
46% 0.94× vs 49% 1.89 53% NO_BET
15 Sollentuna v Umeå
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-07 13:00 UTC
45% 1.10× vs 40% 1.01 99% WATCHLIST_FH_O15
16 Torslanda v Hestrafor
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Vastra Gotaland · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC
42% 0.81× vs 52% 1.04 96% NO_BET
17 Grótta v Grindavík
Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
41% 0.96× vs 43% 2.08 48% +1.9% NO_BET
18 Atlantis v HIFK
Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
41% 0.83× vs 49% 1.69 59% NO_BET
19 Rågsved v Lindo FF
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Sodra Svealand · 2026-06-06 12:00 UTC
40% 0.93× vs 43% 1.04 96% NO_BET
20 Skiljebo v Enskede
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
39% 0.97× vs 41% 1.01 99% NO_BET

Recommended picksSubset of the ranking that cleared a verdict tier — full reasoning

AaB v HB Køge

Denmark — Denmark 1st Division · 2026-05-30 13:00 UTC
STRONG_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10
BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.28 (Betfair Exchange)
Net edge +3.5% (gross +6.5%) Confidence: medium-high
Betfair: £0 matched · £39 to back @ 2.28 · lay 2.50 (£50)
Model46.7%
Market43.9%
League avg35.6%
Why this pick
  • Model FH O1.5 = 46.7% (league base rate 35.6%)
  • Home team FH attack at home: 1.19× league avg (scored 0.84/game, n=31)
  • Away team FH defence away: 1.40× league avg (conceded 1.00/game, n=47)
  • Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.58 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.27)
  • Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.94 (home 1.52, away 1.42)
  • H2H last 5 matches: 40% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
  • Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 2, 4, 1]
  • Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 0, 1, 1, 1]
Risks
  • Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
  • Past calibration does not guarantee future performance
generated 2026-05-29 12:04:03 UTC

Täby v Skiljebo

Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-05-30 11:00 UTC
STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10
BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.04 (Betfair Exchange)
Net edge +5.8% (gross +8.6%) Confidence: low
Betfair: £0 matched · £33 to back @ 2.04 · lay 2.44 (£16)
Model53.2%
Market49.0%
League avg40.7%
Why this pick
  • Model FH O1.5 = 53.2% (league base rate 40.7%)
  • Home team FH attack at home: 1.18× league avg (scored 1.00/game, n=18)
  • Away team FH defence away: 1.06× league avg (conceded 0.84/game, n=38)
  • Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.78 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.44)
  • Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.72 (home 1.27, away 1.45)
  • Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 2, 1, 0]
  • Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 1, 4]
Risks
  • Small sample: home n=18, away n=38
  • Thin H2H history (n=2) — H2H signal less reliable
  • Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
  • Past calibration does not guarantee future performance
generated 2026-05-30 05:30:22 UTC

Hammarby Talang v AFC Eskilstuna

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC
ELITE_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10
BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25 (Betfair Exchange)
Net edge +5.2% (gross +6.2%) Confidence: medium-high
Betfair: £0 matched · £45 to back @ 1.25 · lay 1.29 (£19)
Note: model saw +19.9% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +5.2% edge is plausible and acted on.
Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):
BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.18 market implied 45.9% edge +19.9%
Betfair: £0 matched · £18 to back @ 2.18 · lay 2.34 (£18)
Model85.0%
Market80.0%
League avg76.3%
Why this pick
  • Model FH O1.5 = 56.5% (league base rate 40.2%)
  • Home team FH attack at home: 1.27× league avg (scored 0.98/game, n=44)
  • Away team FH defence away: 1.44× league avg (conceded 1.15/game, n=34)
  • Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.90 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
  • Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.56 (home 2.01, away 1.55)
  • H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
  • Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 2, 2]
  • Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 4, 4, 3]
Risks
  • Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
  • Past calibration does not guarantee future performance
Technical notes:
  • fh_o15 back edge +19.9% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs
generated 2026-05-30 05:30:24 UTC

Umeå v Stocksund

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-31 12:30 UTC
ELITE_FH_O15 █████████░ 9/10
BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.21 (Betfair Exchange)
Net edge +4.4% (gross +5.3%) Confidence: medium
Betfair: £0 matched · £587 to back @ 1.21 · lay 1.25 (£90)
Note: model saw +18.1% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +4.4% edge is plausible and acted on.
Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):
BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.00 market implied 50.0% edge +18.1%
Betfair: £0 matched · £34 to back @ 2.00 · lay 2.04 (£10)
Model87.0%
Market82.6%
League avg76.3%
Why this pick
  • Model FH O1.5 = 60.6% (league base rate 40.2%)
  • Home team FH attack at home: 0.92× league avg (scored 0.66/game, n=29)
  • Away team FH defence away: 1.79× league avg (conceded 1.44/game, n=43)
  • Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.04 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
  • Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.62 (home 1.28, away 1.34)
  • H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.2 FH goals
  • Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 3, 1, 0, 1]
  • Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 0, 3, 2, 2]
Risks
  • Small sample: home n=29, away n=43
  • Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
  • Past calibration does not guarantee future performance
Technical notes:
  • fh_o15 back edge +18.1% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs
generated 2026-05-31 05:30:16 UTC

Recently resolvedLast 14 days

LeagueFixturePickOutcomeP&L (£10 stake)
Norway — Norway 2. Division Levanger v Junkeren BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.23 HIT (HT 1-0) £+2.18
Norway — Norway Eliteserien Molde v Sandefjord BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25 HIT (HT 1-0) £+2.38
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga KuPS v Inter Turku BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.38 MISS (HT 0-0) £-10.00
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan Malmö FF v Halmstad BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.64 HIT (HT 2-2) £+15.58
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan GAIS v Kalmar BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.33 HIT (HT 1-0) £+3.14
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga Džiugas Telšiai v Panevėžys BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.92 HIT (HT 2-0) £+18.24
Finland — Finland Kakkonen MYPA v PEPO BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.20 MISS (HT 0-0) £-10.00

Performance

ScopenHit %Net ROI (5% comm)
Overall771.4%+30.74%
STRONG_FH_O15771.4%+30.74%
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga1100.0%+182.40%
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan2100.0%+93.58%
Norway — Norway Eliteserien1100.0%+23.75%
Norway — Norway 2. Division1100.0%+21.85%
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga10.0%-100.00%
Finland — Finland Kakkonen10.0%-100.00%

Top candidates outside your leaguesTop 10 by Betfair-implied O1.5 · market price only, no model

# Fixture Implied O1.5 Back Lay (£ size) Matched £
1 Bolivia (W) v Paraguay (W)
CONMEBOL Ladies Nations League · 2026-06-05 23:00 UTC
65% 1.55 1.70 (£21) £0
2 SJK Akatemia 2 v Narpes Kraft
Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
64% 1.57 2.12 (£38) £0
3 FC Arbaer v Sindri
Icelandic 3 Deild · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC
63% 1.59 2.12 (£38) £0
4 FC Honka Akatemia v EBK
Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
62% 1.60 1.81 (£61) £0
5 Huima v FF Jaro II
Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC
59% 1.69 1.91 (£40) £0

League usefulness reportWhich of your 50 leagues are actually working — lifetime stats

League Total picks Resolved Hit % Net ROI Last pick
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan 2 2 100% +93.6% 2026-05-30
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga 1 1 100% +182.4% 2026-05-30
Norway — Norway Eliteserien 1 1 100% +23.8% 2026-05-30
Norway — Norway 2. Division 1 1 100% +21.8% 2026-05-31
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga 1 1 0% -100.0% 2026-05-30
Finland — Finland Kakkonen 1 1 0% -100.0% 2026-05-29
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division 1 0 2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand 1 0 2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North 2 0 2026-05-31