OLUR — first-half goals scanner

Top goal candidates todayTop 20 of 38 analysed · ranked by model FH O1.5 probability

Tier League

#	Fixture	Model O1.5	vs league	Betfair O1.5	Edge (best market)	Verdict
1	Järfälla v Stocksund Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-08 17:30 UTC	56%	1.38× vs 40%	—	—	NO_BET
2	Jazz v VJS Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC	55%	1.14× vs 48%	2.06 49%	—	NO_BET
3	Qviding FIF v Astorps FF Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Vastra Gotaland · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	53%	1.03× vs 52%	1.04 96%	—	NO_BET
4	TPV v Inter Turku II Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	53%	1.11× vs 48%	1.89 53%	—	NO_BET
5	Honka v EBK Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	53%	1.07× vs 49%	1.60 62%	+2.6%	NO_BET
6	MYPA v PPJ Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	52%	1.06× vs 49%	1.96 51%	+0.2%	NO_BET
7	TP-47 v JBK Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	52%	1.05× vs 49%	2.02 50%	+2.4%	NO_BET
8	Öster v Värnamo Sweden — Sweden Superettan · 2026-06-09 17:00 UTC	52%	1.55× vs 34%	—	—	NO_BET
9	JJK v PKKU Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 15:30 UTC	51%	1.05× vs 48%	2.06 49%	+2.1%	NO_BET
10	GBK v Vaajakoski Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	51%	1.02× vs 49%	1.01 99%	—	NO_BET
11	OLS v SalPa Finland — Finland Ykkönen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	49%	1.00× vs 48%	2.18 46%	—	NO_BET
12	Nyköping v Fittja IF Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Sodra Svealand · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC	48%	1.11× vs 43%	1.01 99%	—	NO_BET
13	Sunnersta v Gute Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-06-06 12:30 UTC	46%	1.15× vs 41%	1.04 96%	—	WATCHLIST_FH_O15
14	Union Plaani v HPS Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	46%	0.94× vs 49%	1.89 53%	—	NO_BET
15	Sollentuna v Umeå Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-06-07 13:00 UTC	45%	1.10× vs 40%	1.01 99%	—	WATCHLIST_FH_O15
16	Torslanda v Hestrafor Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Vastra Gotaland · 2026-06-06 11:00 UTC	42%	0.81× vs 52%	1.04 96%	—	NO_BET
17	Grótta v Grindavík Iceland — Iceland 1. Deild · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	41%	0.96× vs 43%	2.08 48%	+1.9%	NO_BET
18	Atlantis v HIFK Finland — Finland Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	41%	0.83× vs 49%	1.69 59%	—	NO_BET
19	Rågsved v Lindo FF Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Sodra Svealand · 2026-06-06 12:00 UTC	40%	0.93× vs 43%	1.04 96%	—	NO_BET
20	Skiljebo v Enskede Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	39%	0.97× vs 41%	1.01 99%	—	NO_BET

Recommended picksSubset of the ranking that cleared a verdict tier — full reasoning

AaB v HB Køge

Denmark — Denmark 1st Division · 2026-05-30 13:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.28 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +3.5% (gross +6.5%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £39 to back @ 2.28 · lay 2.50 (£50)

Model46.7%

Market43.9%

League avg35.6%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 46.7% (league base rate 35.6%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.19× league avg (scored 0.84/game, n=31)
Away team FH defence away: 1.40× league avg (conceded 1.00/game, n=47)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.58 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.27)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.94 (home 1.52, away 1.42)
H2H last 5 matches: 40% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 2, 4, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [3, 0, 1, 1, 1]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Täby v Skiljebo

Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand · 2026-05-30 11:00 UTC

STRONG_FH_O15 ███████░░░ 7/10

BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.04 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.8% (gross +8.6%) Confidence: low

Betfair: £0 matched · £33 to back @ 2.04 · lay 2.44 (£16)

Model53.2%

Market49.0%

League avg40.7%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 53.2% (league base rate 40.7%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.18× league avg (scored 1.00/game, n=18)
Away team FH defence away: 1.06× league avg (conceded 0.84/game, n=38)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.78 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.44)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.72 (home 1.27, away 1.45)
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 2, 1, 0]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 1, 4]

Risks

Small sample: home n=18, away n=38
Thin H2H history (n=2) — H2H signal less reliable
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Hammarby Talang v AFC Eskilstuna

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-30 14:00 UTC

ELITE_FH_O15 ████████░░ 8/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +5.2% (gross +6.2%) Confidence: medium-high

Betfair: £0 matched · £45 to back @ 1.25 · lay 1.29 (£19)

Note: model saw +19.9% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +5.2% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.18	market implied 45.9%	edge +19.9%
Betfair: £0 matched · £18 to back @ 2.18 · lay 2.34 (£18)

Model85.0%

Market80.0%

League avg76.3%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 56.5% (league base rate 40.2%)
Home team FH attack at home: 1.27× league avg (scored 0.98/game, n=44)
Away team FH defence away: 1.44× league avg (conceded 1.15/game, n=34)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 1.90 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 3.56 (home 2.01, away 1.55)
H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 1.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [0, 1, 1, 2, 2]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 1, 4, 4, 3]

Risks

Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +19.9% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Umeå v Stocksund

Sweden — Sweden Ettan North · 2026-05-31 12:30 UTC

ELITE_FH_O15 █████████░ 9/10

BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.21 (Betfair Exchange)

Net edge +4.4% (gross +5.3%) Confidence: medium

Betfair: £0 matched · £587 to back @ 1.21 · lay 1.25 (£90)

Note: model saw +18.1% edge on FH O15 but the sanity guard refused it (any edge >15% is flagged as likely-data-error). Pick fell back to FH O05 where +4.4% edge is plausible and acted on.

Suppressed by sanity guard (would have been picked otherwise):

BACK FH OVER 1.5	@ 2.00	market implied 50.0%	edge +18.1%
Betfair: £0 matched · £34 to back @ 2.00 · lay 2.04 (£10)

Model87.0%

Market82.6%

League avg76.3%

Why this pick

Model FH O1.5 = 60.6% (league base rate 40.2%)
Home team FH attack at home: 0.92× league avg (scored 0.66/game, n=29)
Away team FH defence away: 1.79× league avg (conceded 1.44/game, n=43)
Combined Poisson λ_fh = 2.04 expected first-half goals (vs league avg 1.39)
Total xG (pre-match, FootyStats): 2.62 (home 1.28, away 1.34)
H2H last 4 matches: 50% hit FH O1.5, avg 2.2 FH goals
Recent home form (FH goals last 5): [1, 3, 1, 0, 1]
Recent away form (FH goals last 5): [1, 0, 3, 2, 2]

Risks

Small sample: home n=29, away n=43
Check Betfair Exchange liquidity at recommended price before placing
Past calibration does not guarantee future performance

Technical notes:

fh_o15 back edge +18.1% exceeds plausibility (+15%) — check inputs

Recently resolvedLast 14 days

League	Fixture	Pick	Outcome	P&L (£10 stake)
Norway — Norway 2. Division	Levanger v Junkeren	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.23	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+2.18
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	Molde v Sandefjord	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.25	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+2.38
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS v Inter Turku	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.38	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	Malmö FF v Halmstad	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.64	HIT (HT 2-2)	£+15.58
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	GAIS v Kalmar	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.33	HIT (HT 1-0)	£+3.14
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	Džiugas Telšiai v Panevėžys	BACK FH OVER 1.5 @ 2.92	HIT (HT 2-0)	£+18.24
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	MYPA v PEPO	BACK FH OVER 0.5 @ 1.20	MISS (HT 0-0)	£-10.00

Performance

Scope	n	Hit %	Net ROI (5% comm)
Overall	7	71.4%	+30.74%
STRONG_FH_O15	7	71.4%	+30.74%
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	1	100.0%	+182.40%
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	2	100.0%	+93.58%
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	100.0%	+23.75%
Norway — Norway 2. Division	1	100.0%	+21.85%
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	1	0.0%	-100.00%
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	1	0.0%	-100.00%

Top candidates outside your leaguesTop 10 by Betfair-implied O1.5 · market price only, no model

#	Fixture	Implied O1.5	Back	Lay (£ size)	Matched £
1	Bolivia (W) v Paraguay (W) CONMEBOL Ladies Nations League · 2026-06-05 23:00 UTC	65%	1.55	1.70 (£21)	£0
2	SJK Akatemia 2 v Narpes Kraft Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	64%	1.57	2.12 (£38)	£0
3	FC Arbaer v Sindri Icelandic 3 Deild · 2026-06-06 14:00 UTC	63%	1.59	2.12 (£38)	£0
4	FC Honka Akatemia v EBK Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	62%	1.60	1.81 (£61)	£0
5	Huima v FF Jaro II Finnish Kakkonen · 2026-06-06 13:00 UTC	59%	1.69	1.91 (£40)	£0

If a league keeps appearing here, consider swapping it into your FootyStats selection so we can model it properly.

League usefulness reportWhich of your 50 leagues are actually working — lifetime stats

League	Total picks	Resolved	Hit %	Net ROI	Last pick
Sweden — Sweden Allsvenskan	2	2	100%	+93.6%	2026-05-30
Lithuania — Lithuania A Lyga	1	1	100%	+182.4%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway Eliteserien	1	1	100%	+23.8%	2026-05-30
Norway — Norway 2. Division	1	1	100%	+21.8%	2026-05-31
Finland — Finland Veikkausliiga	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-30
Finland — Finland Kakkonen	1	1	0%	-100.0%	2026-05-29
Denmark — Denmark 1st Division	1	0	—	—	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Division 2 Norra Svealand	1	0	—	—	2026-05-30
Sweden — Sweden Ettan North	2	0	—	—	2026-05-31

Leagues with 0 picks (or sustained negative ROI) are candidates to swap out of your FootyStats selection. Top external leagues from the panel above are candidates to swap in.